Guru
Updated
Hit or stand is the decision you make most often in blackjack, and it is where most of the money is lost by players who have never learned the chart. The rules are simpler than they look once you separate hard totals from soft totals and split the dealer's upcards into weak (2 to 6) and strong (7 to ace).
This guide covers the hit and stand decisions for a 4-deck game where the dealer stands on soft 17. Doubling and splitting are covered separately; here we assume you have already decided not to do either.
A stiff hand is a hard 12 through 16: any card worth 6 or more can bust you, yet standing leaves you hoping the dealer busts. Against a weak dealer upcard of 2 through 6 you stand on 13 to 16, because the dealer will bust often enough that you should not take the risk yourself. Against 7 through ace you hit, because the dealer will finish with 17 or more most of the time and your stiff total will almost never win by standing.
Hard 12 is the exception. The dealer busts least often with a 2 or 3 among the weak cards, and 12 can only be busted by a 10-value card, so you hit 12 against a 2 and a 3 but stand against 4, 5 and 6. Hard 17 and above always stand; the chance of improving is far too small to risk busting.
With a soft total the ace can drop from 11 to 1, so hitting cannot bust you on the next card. That changes everything for soft 13 through 17: you always hit them (or double, if the chart says so) because standing on soft 17 or less wins far too rarely. A soft 17 is not a made hand; the dealer beats it most of the time.
Soft 18 is the hinge. Stand against 2, 7 and 8, where 18 is a favourite. Hit against 9, 10 and ace, where 18 is an underdog and the free card is worth more than the hand. Against 3 to 6, double if you can and stand if you cannot. Soft 19 and 20 always stand.
The dealer must draw to 17, so an upcard of 7 or higher usually produces a finished hand with one more card, while 2 through 6 forces the dealer to draw from a stiff total and bust somewhere between a quarter and 42 percent of the time. That is why the chart's columns are so sharply divided.
Among the strong upcards, the 10 and ace are the worst for you, with a dealer bust rate of roughly 21 and 17 percent respectively. Against those cards you are usually trying to lose less, not win more, which is why plays like hitting 16 against a 10 look reckless but are correct.
The biggest leak is standing on 15 or 16 against a 10 because it 'feels safer'. Over a thousand hands it costs more than hitting. The second is hitting 12 against a 4, 5 or 6, usually because 12 feels too small to stand on. The third is standing on soft 17 as if it were hard 17.
Fix these one at a time. The trainer's Common Mistake Training mode deals these exact spots repeatedly, and the hand history shows how often your first instinct matched the chart.
| Your Total | Dealer 2-3 | Dealer 4-6 | Dealer 7-Ace |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hard 12 | Hit | Stand | Hit |
| Hard 13-16 | Stand | Stand | Hit |
| Hard 17+ | Stand | Stand | Stand |
| Soft 13-17 | Hit (or double) | Hit (or double) | Hit |
| Soft 18 | Stand vs 2 (double vs 3) | Double, else stand | Stand vs 7-8, hit vs 9-A |
| Soft 19+ | Stand | Stand | Stand |
Hitting 16 against a 10 busts about 62 percent of the time, but standing wins only when the dealer busts, which happens about 21 percent of the time. Hitting loses less over the long run even though it feels worse.
Yes, against a dealer 4, 5 or 6. Against every other upcard you hit 12.
No. Other players' cards do not change the probabilities for your hand in any predictable way, so the chart is the same whether you play alone or at a full table.
A few of them, at extreme counts. For example, counters stand on 16 against a 10 when the count is positive. Learn the basic chart first; the deviations are only worth anything once the base game is automatic.
Reading strategy helps, but repetition is what locks it in. Use the trainer to practice hand-by-hand decisions with immediate EV-focused feedback.